Brazilians vote on Sunday, Oct. 25, 2026, in a presidential runoff between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro that the final polls show is effectively tied. Polls open at 8 a.m. and close at 5 p.m. Brasília time (7 a.m. to 4 p.m. ET), and the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) begins releasing the official count at 4 p.m. ET, according to The Rio Times.
Flávio Bolsonaro, a senator for Rio de Janeiro and the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, finished first in the Oct. 4 first round with 47.03% to Lula's 45.16%. Datafolha's final survey, released Oct. 22, had the two candidates at 50% each of valid votes.
The outcome matters for Washington. A Bolsonaro win would increase U.S. influence in Latin America, while a Lula win would keep Brazil at a distance from Washington and deepen its ties with China, the Associated Press noted in its debate coverage. The U.S. role in the campaign has itself become a central issue in the Brazil runoff.
Key Facts
- When: Sunday, Oct. 25, 2026; polls 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. Brasília time (7 a.m. to 4 p.m. ET).
- Where: Nationwide across Brazil, plus 265,047 voters registered in 11 U.S. cities.
- Who: President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Workers' Party, PT) vs. Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (Liberal Party, PL).
- What: Runoff after no candidate won a majority on Oct. 4.
- Electorate: About 158.7 million registered voters; voting is compulsory.
- Polls: Datafolha 50-50; Quaest 50.6-49.4 for Bolsonaro (valid votes); Vox Brasil 50.6-49.4 for Lula.
- Status: Developing. Results expected Sunday evening ET.
What Happened
The two candidates met Friday, Oct. 23, in a two-hour debate on TV Globo in Rio de Janeiro, the second and final debate of the runoff, the AP reported. The debate was scheduled for 9:20 p.m. Brasília time (8:20 p.m. ET) and moderated by Jornal Nacional anchor César Tralli, according to The Rio Times.
The sharpest exchange came when Bolsonaro used the pejorative nickname "nine fingers," a reference to the finger Lula lost in a factory accident. Lula, 80, demanded an apology, and Bolsonaro gave one on air. Lula in turn called Bolsonaro a "vigilante," a reference to police-linked groups operating in poor Rio communities, and Bolsonaro said he would rename those groups "narcoterrorists," the AP reported.
The United States also came up directly. Lula said that when his opponent was courting Trump "to get Brazil taxed," he was not worried, and added that if Trump does not want to buy from Brazil, he will sell elsewhere, The Rio Times reported, citing SBT News. Lula pressed Bolsonaro on an island property in Angra dos Reis that is under Federal Police inquiry, while Bolsonaro cited Lula's corruption convictions, which the Supreme Court later annulled, The Rio Times reported.
Both campaigns spent the final week chasing roughly 33 million people who did not vote in the first round, MercoPress reported. Lula's government began paying a 15% increase in Bolsa Família benefits this week, and the Senate approved a 40-hour working week, one of his flagship pledges. Bolsonaro has the backing of nearly all right-wing and center-right parties and ten governors elected in the first round.
No first-round runner-up has won Brazil's presidency since direct elections returned in 1989, MercoPress noted, a pattern Lula is trying to break.
Timeline
| Date/Time ET | Event |
|---|---|
| Sept. 2025 | Jair Bolsonaro sentenced to 27 years over the 2022-2023 coup plot (per Wikipedia's election summary) |
| Dec. 2025 | Flávio Bolsonaro announces his candidacy |
| May 2026 | Flávio and Eduardo Bolsonaro meet Trump in the Oval Office; U.S. later designates Brazil's two main gangs as terrorist organizations |
| July 16, 2026 | USTR announces 25% Section 301 tariffs on some Brazilian imports, effective July 22 |
| Sept. 29, 2026 | Three Democratic senators urge Secretary of State Marco Rubio to recognize the certified result |
| Oct. 4, 2026 | First round: Bolsonaro 47.03%, Lula 45.16% |
| Oct. 22, 2026 | Datafolha final poll shows a 50-50 tie |
| Oct. 23, 2026, 8:20 p.m. | Final TV Globo debate |
| Oct. 25, 2026, 7 a.m. to 4 p.m. | Voting; official count begins at 4 p.m. |
Who's Involved
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, 80, president and Workers' Party candidate, is seeking a fourth nonconsecutive term. His running mate is Vice President Geraldo Alckmin (PSB).
- Flávio Bolsonaro, senator for Rio de Janeiro (PL), is running with Alfredo Gaspar (PL). His campaign centers on security, the economy and a proposed Ministry of Prosperity, MercoPress reported. He has pledged to join the U.S.-led Shield of the Americas, according to the Latin America Daily Briefing.
- Superior Electoral Court (TSE) runs the electronic vote and declares the official result. It has ordered Meta to ensure equal treatment of both candidates after each campaign accused the company of bias, MercoPress reported; Meta denies interfering.
- Mauro Vieira, Brazil's foreign minister, said in an interview published Oct. 21 that Trump administration representatives took sides in the election and posed for photographs, The Rio Times reported.
- Celso Amorim, Lula's foreign policy adviser, told Folha de S.Paulo that Trump "will respect it in practice," per The Rio Times.
- Eduardo Bolsonaro, Flávio's brother and a former congressman, has said there would be a "faxina," or clean-out, inside Brazil's foreign ministry if Flávio wins, according to the same Rio Times report.
The Ground Picture
Brazil is Latin America's largest economy, with a population of 214 million, according to the AP. The first round showed a deep geographic divide: Bolsonaro won about 79% of the vote in small agricultural towns with large evangelical populations, up from 53% for his father in 2022, according to the Latin America Daily Briefing. Lula leads among voters over 60 by 48% to 42% in a Quaest poll cited by the briefing, a group that is nearly a quarter of the electorate.
Whoever wins will face a Congress that shifted right. The PL became the largest party in the Chamber of Deputies with 121 of 513 seats and will hold 29 of 81 Senate seats, according to the election's summary on Wikipedia. Analysts say a Bolsonaro win would give the right control of every elected branch of government.
The race also unfolds against corruption investigations touching both camps, including the Banco Master scandal and an INSS pension fraud scheme, and a dispute inside the Supreme Court.
Geopolitical Players
- United States: In July, the U.S. Trade Representative imposed 25% tariffs on some Brazilian imports under Section 301, exempting coffee, beef, orange juice, some energy products and aerospace parts. Rubio said Lula's government had "not negotiated with the US in good faith." After the first round, Trump called Bolsonaro's result "a very big victory," The Christian Science Monitor reported, though he has not formally endorsed him.
- U.S. Congress: Sens. Peter Welch, Jeanne Shaheen and Tim Kaine asked Rubio to commit to "recognizing the certified outcome of Brazil's 2026 democratic elections," and accused the administration of trying to weaken Brazil's institutions.
- China: Beijing would likely see continuity under Lula, who would deepen Brazil's relationship with China, according to the AP's assessment.
- Russia: Brazil has been one of the main buyers of Russian diesel since the EU embargo took effect in 2023, Reuters reported via The National.
- Foreign diplomats in Brasília are discussing quick recognition of the winner to deter attempts to call the race early, according to Reuters reporting summarized by Just Security.
What It Means for the United States
The analysis below reflects Ecker Geopolitics' assessment of the evidence.
Benefits and opportunities
- A Bolsonaro presidency would align Brazil with Washington on security, including the gang terrorist designations and the Shield of the Americas, and could weaken China's foothold in the Western Hemisphere.
- Either result offers room for a trade reset. The United States ran a $14.4 billion goods surplus with Brazil in 2025 on $94.2 billion in total goods trade, according to USTR, so American exporters have a large stake in lower tariffs.
- A fast, clean count on Brazil's electronic system would reduce the risk of a 2023-style post-election crisis in the hemisphere's second-largest democracy.
Risks and dangers
- If Lula wins, the perception in Brasília that Washington took sides could push his government further toward China and the BRICS bloc.
- If Bolsonaro wins narrowly, critics in Brazil and Congress may cast the outcome as U.S.-influenced, complicating relations with the new government.
- Tariffs on Brazilian goods and possible retaliation weigh on U.S. farmers and manufacturers who compete or trade with Brazil.
- Analysts Alexander Main and Guillaume Long argue U.S. military operations against gangs in Brazil are "a real possibility," a scenario Lula's government opposes.
Go deeper on the Western Hemisphere. Pro Truth Seeker members get the daily Intel Briefing, members-only deep dives and the full archive. Become a member.
What's Next
Voting runs from 7 a.m. to 4 p.m. ET on Sunday, Oct. 25, and the TSE updates its count every few minutes after polls close. The Rio Times says about 97% of the vote was counted by roughly 9:30 p.m. Brasília time in 2022 (8:30 p.m. ET at Sunday's offset), so a winner could be clear on Sunday evening if the margin allows.
Watch for whether the losing candidate concedes, how quickly Washington recognizes the result, and whether tariffs and the gang designations shift after the vote. For background on Brazil's role in the Russian fuel trade, see our report on Trump's Russian diesel deal and today's coverage of the first Russian diesel tanker bound for New York.
Get results-night analysis in the free Ecker Dispatch newsletter and watch Ecker Geopolitics.
Sources
- The Rio Times: Brazil Election Results 2026 — Runoff Live Count, October 25, Oct. 2026
- The Rio Times: Brazil Election Polls — Datafolha Tie 50-50, Oct. 23, 2026
- ABC News/AP: Lula, Bolsonaro reach out to undecided voters in last debate, Oct. 24, 2026
- The Rio Times: Globo Debate Airs Friday Oct 23 With Tralli, Oct. 2026
- The Rio Times: Brazil Final Debate — Lula Hits Rival Over Trump Tariffs, Oct. 24, 2026
- MercoPress: Lula and Bolsonaro chase non-voters in the final stretch, Oct. 23, 2026
- Latin America Daily Briefing: Brazil's runoff goes down to the wire, Oct. 23, 2026
- The Rio Times: Brazil Foreign Minister Says US Took Sides in Runoff, Oct. 2026
- The Rio Times: Celso Amorim Says Trump Will Respect Brazil Runoff Result, Oct. 24, 2026
- The Christian Science Monitor: Is the US meddling in Brazil's presidential election?, Oct. 20, 2026
- WCAX/AP: US imposing a 25% tariff on some Brazilian imports starting July 22, July 16, 2026
- Office of Sen. Peter Welch: Welch, Shaheen, Kaine urge Trump admin to recognize certified outcome, Sept. 29, 2026
- USTR: Brazil country page, accessed Oct. 24, 2026
- The National/Reuters: Initial shipment of Russian diesel heads to the US, Oct. 23, 2026
- Just Security: Early Edition, October 23, 2026, Oct. 23, 2026
- Wikipedia: 2026 Brazilian general election, accessed Oct. 24, 2026
- NASA Earth Observatory: Brazil at Night, June 13, 2014