Israel's Oct. 27 Knesset election has produced no clear winner. With 76.8% of ballot boxes counted as of 10:58 a.m. Israel time Wednesday, Oct. 28 (4:58 a.m. ET), Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud-led bloc held 54 of 120 seats, the Eisenkot-led opposition bloc held 47 and Arab-led parties held 19, according to partial Central Elections Committee results reported by The Times of Israel.
Both blocs remain short of the 61 seats needed to govern. Likud is on track to be the largest single party, but former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, whose Yashar! party is running second, told supporters "the public chose change," Ynetnews reported.
The Israel election results matter far beyond Israel. The vote was fought largely over the war with Iran, and whoever forms the next government will shape whether Israel and the United States resume large-scale strikes after the U.S. midterms on Nov. 3.
Key Facts
- When: Polls closed at 10 p.m. Israel time on Tuesday, Oct. 27 (4 p.m. ET); counting continues, with double-envelope ballots, including soldiers' votes, still to come.
- Where: Nationwide vote for Israel's 120-seat Knesset, the parliament in Jerusalem.
- Who: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (Likud); Gadi Eisenkot (Yashar!), former IDF chief of staff; President Isaac Herzog, who will nominate a candidate to form a government.
- What: A hung result in which neither the pro-Netanyahu bloc nor the Eisenkot-led bloc has a majority.
- Status: Developing. Partial results will shift; official results are due Nov. 4.
- Count at 76.8%: Netanyahu bloc 54, Eisenkot bloc 47, Arab-led parties 19.
- Turnout: 77.7%, the highest since 1999, according to Central Elections Committee figures reported by Al Jazeera.
What Happened
Voting ran through Tuesday with heavy turnout from the start. By 8 p.m., 74.3% of the 7,331,981 eligible voters had cast ballots, the highest rate for that hour since 1988, compared with 66.3% at the same point in November 2022, Ynetnews reported. The Israel Defense Forces put military turnout at 79.9%, up 6.2 points from the last election, according to Ynetnews.
When polls closed, the broadcasters' exit polls pointed to a narrow edge for the opposition. Channel 12 projected Likud at 24 seats and Yashar! at 22, with the change bloc on 52 and Netanyahu's bloc on 50; Channel 13 had Likud 25, Yashar! 23 and blocs of 53 and 50, according to Ynetnews. Kan 11 had Likud at 25 and Yashar! at 21, while right-leaning Channel 14 gave the right-wing bloc 60 seats, Israel Hayom reported.
The real count moved the other way overnight. With about a quarter of ballot boxes counted at 4:05 a.m., the pro-Netanyahu bloc briefly showed 63 seats, but the gap narrowed as more ballots were counted, The Times of Israel's liveblog showed. At 53.7% counted, the blocs stood at 55 and 50, with Arab-led parties at 15, according to The Times of Israel.
A party-by-party snapshot published by Ynetnews at about the halfway mark gave Likud 27 seats, Yashar! 21, the Joint List 12, Naftali Bennett's Beyachad 11, The Democrats 9, United Torah Judaism 9, Yisrael Beytenu 8, Shas 7, Otzma Yehudit 6, Religious Zionism-Zehut 6 and Ra'am 4, according to Ynetnews. Ecker Geopolitics could not independently verify party-level totals at the 76.8% mark.
Netanyahu addressed supporters at Likud headquarters in Jerusalem without formally declaring victory. He said the right-wing bloc had won a "decisive majority" among the Zionist public and called for a "right-wing, national, strong government," The Times of Israel reported. He also said Israel has a "historic, one-time opportunity" with President Donald Trump to remove the Iranian threat.
"The Zionist majority must come to its senses and unite. Only that way can we guarantee Israel's future." — Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, as quoted by Ynetnews
Eisenkot claimed the opposite mandate. "The old era is over, and Israel is starting a new era," he said, according to Al Jazeera, and he told supporters the public "voted against Benjamin Netanyahu continuing as prime minister," Ynetnews reported.
Timeline
| Date/Time (ET) | Event |
|---|---|
| Oct. 27, 2:00 p.m. | Turnout reaches 74.3% by 8 p.m. local, the highest for that hour since 1988 |
| Oct. 27, 4:00 p.m. | Polls close; exit polls show neither bloc with 61 seats |
| Oct. 27, 10:05 p.m. | With 25.2% counted, Netanyahu bloc shows 63 seats in early returns |
| Oct. 28, 1:27 a.m. | With 53.7% counted, blocs stand at 55 and 50; Arab-led parties 15 |
| Oct. 28, 4:58 a.m. | With 76.8% counted, blocs stand at 54 and 47; Arab-led parties 19 |
| Nov. 4 | Official results due to be published |
| Nov. 11 | Deadline for President Herzog to task a candidate with forming a government |
Who's Involved
- Benjamin Netanyahu, prime minister and Likud leader, seeks another term and has campaigned on finishing the war with Iran.
- Gadi Eisenkot, former IDF chief of staff and leader of Yashar!, heads the anti-Netanyahu bloc and says voters chose change.
- Naftali Bennett, former prime minister, leads Beyachad, part of the Eisenkot bloc.
- Avigdor Lieberman (Yisrael Beytenu) and Yair Golan (The Democrats) are opposition partners; Golan said voters had "fired the Netanyahu government," per Al Jazeera, and claimed "a majority of 65 seats," The Times of Israel reported, a figure the partial count does not support.
- Itamar Ben-Gvir (Otzma Yehudit), Bezalel Smotrich (Religious Zionism-Zehut), Shas and United Torah Judaism make up the rest of Netanyahu's bloc.
- Mansour Abbas (Ra'am) and Yousef Jabareen (Joint List) lead the Arab-led parties, whose combined total The New Arab described as record-breaking when it stood at 16 seats; it has since risen to 19, This Is Beirut reported. Abbas called Netanyahu's campaign warnings a "scare tactic," Al Jazeera reported.
- President Isaac Herzog will consult party leaders before nominating a candidate.
The Ground Picture
The arithmetic is the story. On the latest count, Netanyahu's bloc is seven seats short of 61, while the Eisenkot bloc could reach a majority only with backing from Arab-led parties. Netanyahu has called reliance on "anti-Zionist Arab parties" unthinkable, according to The Times of Israel, and described Arab voters as "Muslim Brotherhood supporters," Al Jazeera reported.
The remaining ballots could still move seats. More than 650,000 double-envelope ballots, including soldiers' votes, are expected to require separate verification and counting, which could continue until Friday morning, Ynetnews reported. Three parties were below the 3.25% threshold at the 76.8% mark: the Reservists at 2.6%, People of Israel at 1.7% and Charedi Public at 0.2%, per The Times of Israel.
Markets had priced in deadlock before the vote. Tel Aviv Stock Exchange research found the TA-125 index fell an average of 5.3% in the three months before inconclusive elections, against 0.2% before decisive ones, The Times of Israel reported Oct. 16.
Geopolitical Players
- United States: Trump endorsed Netanyahu before the vote. Aboard Air Force One he said, "I think when the endorsement went out, it had helped him a lot," according to The New Arab. Separately, the Wall Street Journal reported that Washington told Gulf states to prepare for a short, intense campaign against Iran after the midterms, as summarized by Iran International.
- Iran: Tehran said before the vote that Israel's election "makes no difference" to its position, CBS News reported.
- Israel's security establishment: Defense Minister Israel Katz urged votes for Netanyahu so Israel could "finish the job" in Iran, according to CBS News. Netanyahu has said Eisenkot "will not strike Iran."
- Arab states and Palestinians: Ecker Geopolitics found no formal Gulf or Palestinian Authority reaction to the partial results as of publication.
Earlier coverage: Ecker Geopolitics' Election Day report on record turnout and the final pre-election polls.
What It Means for the United States
Benefits and opportunities
- A Netanyahu-led government would likely keep Israel closely aligned with Trump's maximum-pressure approach to Iran, which the administration has made central to its Middle East policy.
- A broad unity government, if one emerges, could give Washington a more stable partner and wider domestic Israeli support for any final Iran settlement.
- Record turnout gives whichever coalition forms a strong democratic mandate, which strengthens the U.S. case that Israel's alliance with America rests on popular consent.
Risks and dangers
- A prolonged deadlock would leave Netanyahu as caretaker prime minister. Experts cited by The New York Times have said a caretaker government would make launching a new war harder, IBTimes UK reported, which could complicate reported post-midterm U.S. plans.
- Analysis: a government that depends on Arab-led parties or that is split on Iran could slow joint U.S.-Israeli military planning at a sensitive moment.
- Trump's public endorsement ties the U.S. administration to one side of a contested result, a risk to U.S. standing if the opposition forms the next government.
Get the full Intel Briefing. Pro Truth Seeker members get members-only deep dives on the Iran war, coalition math and what Washington is planning next. Become a member.
What's Next
Counting of double-envelope ballots is expected to continue through Friday, Oct. 30, with the final tally due by then and official results published Nov. 4, according to Al Jazeera. President Herzog then consults the parties and has until Nov. 11 to task a candidate, Israel Hayom reported.
The nominee has up to 42 days to build a coalition. If no government is formed, Netanyahu's current cabinet stays on as a caretaker, or new elections are called, Al Jazeera reported.
Follow the story with Brendan: watch Ecker Geopolitics for the breakdown, and cast your vote in today's poll.
Sources
- The Times of Israel: With over 76% of ballots counted, pro-Netanyahu bloc at 54 seats; Eisenkot-led bloc at 47, Arab parties increase to 19 (Oct. 28, 2026)
- The Times of Israel: With over 50% of ballots counted, pro-Netanyahu bloc has 55 seats (Oct. 28, 2026)
- The Times of Israel: Liveblog, October 28, 2026 (Oct. 28, 2026)
- Ynetnews: Israel election results: Netanyahu bloc at 54 seats as Arab parties rise to 19 (Oct. 28, 2026)
- Ynetnews: Revised exit polls show Netanyahu bloc pulling ahead, Likud largest as Arab parties surge (Oct. 27, 2026)
- Israel Hayom: Israel election 2026 exit polls: Full results (Oct. 27, 2026)
- Al Jazeera: Five key takeaways from Israel's parliamentary elections (Oct. 28, 2026)
- The New Arab: Netanyahu-led bloc leads with over half of vote counted in Israel elections (Oct. 28, 2026)
- This Is Beirut: Israeli Elections: Arab Parties Gain Another Seat as Eisenkot-Led Opposition Loses One (Oct. 28, 2026)
- CBS News: Live Updates: 8-month Iran war looms over Israeli election (Oct. 26-27, 2026)
- Iran International: US warns Persian Gulf states of possible post-election Iran strikes - WSJ (Oct. 28, 2026)
- IBTimes UK: Trump Rules Out Iran Strikes Before Midterms as Pentagon Prepares Plans for New Attacks (Oct. 23, 2026)
- The Times of Israel: Tel Aviv market slide points to investors betting on election deadlock (Oct. 16, 2026)