Security chiefs from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey ended a first joint round of talks with Iran in Tehran on Monday, Oct. 26, 2026, with an agreement to keep talking but no concrete measures and no date for another meeting, Arab News reported. Hours later, CNN reported that U.S. forces could launch major new strikes on Iran within 96 hours of an order from President Donald Trump.
The two developments sharpened the choice Trump has described publicly as between a deal and military action. Oil prices dipped early Tuesday on the diplomacy, while Iran's president, Masoud Pezeshkian, arrived in Moscow for a gas exporters' summit where he is expected to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin.
This is a follow-up to Ecker Geopolitics' Oct. 26 report, Saudi, Pakistani and Turkish Security Chiefs in Tehran for Iran Talks.
Key Facts
- When: Talks held Monday, Oct. 26, 2026, in Tehran; CNN strike-readiness report published the same day; oil prices updated early Tuesday, Oct. 27.
- Where: Tehran, Iran; U.S. naval forces in the Arabian Sea; the Strait of Hormuz; Moscow, Russia.
- Who: Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman; Pakistan's Field Marshal Asim Munir; Turkish intelligence chief Ibrahim Kalin; Iran's Supreme National Security Council secretary Mohsen Rezaei; President Trump.
- What: Regional talks ended without a breakthrough as U.S. officials said strike plans were ready.
- Oil: Brent crude fell about $1 to $114.81 a barrel early Oct. 27, Reuters reported.
- Hormuz flows: About 60% of normal, according to ANZ analysts cited by Reuters.
- Status: Developing; no U.S. strike order has been reported.
What Happened
Iran's Supreme National Security Council secretary, Mohsen Rezaei, hosted Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman, Pakistan's army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir and Turkish intelligence chief Ibrahim Kalin in Tehran on Monday, Arab News reported. The delegations also met Pezeshkian. All three countries are parties to the defense pact known as the Mecca pact, which Turkey sent to its parliament last week.
A joint statement said the four countries would continue talks on "strengthening cooperation" for regional peace and security, according to Arab News and investingLive. It set out no specific measures.
Rezaei told Iranian state television, "Very good discussions took place between us," adding that "a new atmosphere is emerging in the region." That is the Iranian government's characterization. Saudi Arabia said the aim was finding "ways to de-escalate tensions, enhance regional security and promote its stability," Arab News reported. Qatari mediators had been in Tehran on Oct. 25 coordinating with Washington, CBS News reported.
Later Monday, CNN reported, citing two U.S. officials and an Israeli security source, that U.S. forces could begin operations within 96 hours of receiving an order, The Times of Israel reported. According to The Standard, which summarized the CNN report, the operations would be "new, potentially major," and one official said the plans were "ready, waiting for Trump's approval," possibly after the Nov. 3 midterm elections. Potential targets included energy infrastructure, military sites and nuclear facilities.
The White House declined to comment on "sensitive military plans that may or may not exist" and said Trump keeps "all options on the table," Fox News reported. The same CNN report said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had pushed for a joint strike before Israel's Oct. 27 election and that Trump did not approve it; Netanyahu's office called that "fake news," The Times of Israel reported. Ecker Geopolitics could not independently verify the CNN report, which relies on anonymous officials.
Trump, at a rally in Corinth, Mississippi, on Monday, said of an earlier pause in fighting, "We did a little ceasefire, which I never liked very much," the Associated Press reported. He told the crowd, "We didn't start the war with Iran. Iran started the war with us," according to Fox News.
"do I make a deal with them, or do I finish them off?" — President Donald Trump, Oct. 25, via CBS News
Timeline
| Date/Time (ET) | Event |
|---|---|
| Oct. 22-25, 2026 | U.S. orders departures from Saudi Arabia and reduces embassy staffing in the region |
| Oct. 25, 2026 | Trump says he is weighing a deal or to "finish them off" |
| Oct. 25, 2026 | CENTCOM's Adm. Brad Cooper flies over the Strait of Hormuz; Qatari mediators in Tehran |
| Oct. 26, 2026 | Saudi, Pakistani and Turkish security chiefs meet Iranian officials in Tehran |
| Oct. 26, 2026 | CNN reports U.S. strike readiness within 96 hours; Trump rallies in Mississippi |
| Oct. 27, 12:18 a.m. | Brent trades at $114.81 as diplomacy eases supply fears |
| Oct. 27, 2026 | Pezeshkian in Moscow for gas exporters' summit |
Who's Involved
Donald Trump, U.S. president, has not made up his mind but appears to be leaning toward major action, according to the CNN report as summarized by The Standard. He has said higher oil prices are "a small price to pay for taking a nuclear weapon away from maniacs," the AP reported.
Masoud Pezeshkian, Iran's president, said "the current insecurity that the US has created around the world must end," Iran International reported. Government spokeswoman Fatemeh Mohajerani said Iran seeks peace but will respond to any attack.
Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, wrote on X that "America has brought security to no country in the region," Iran International reported.
Abbas Araghchi, Iran's foreign minister, said, "Whether there is war or not, our policies remain the same," CBS News reported.
Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey are positioning as intermediaries; Riyadh framed the talks as preventing "the return of military escalation," according to Fox News.
Weapons and Military Assets
The aircraft carrier USS George Washington (CVN 73) is operating in the Arabian Sea; U.S. Central Command released footage Oct. 26 of sailors refueling jets aboard the ship, Fox News reported.
CBS News reported that a third carrier strike group has been sent to the region even as the overall U.S. footprint has been reduced; Ecker Geopolitics could not confirm the carrier's identity. No U.S. bomber movements were confirmed in the sources reviewed.
On the Iranian side, armed forces chief of staff Maj. Gen. Ali Abdollahi warned that any ship leaving Iran's designated shipping route "will put itself at risk and face serious damage," according to Fox News.
The OSINT Picture
Shipping and commodity tracking data show the strait is partly open but strained, though Iran's armed forces chief claimed on Oct. 26 that the waterway is "completely closed," Gulf News reported. Traffic through Hormuz is running at about 60% of normal and Gulf crude exports fell for a fourth straight week, ANZ analysts said, according to Reuters via The Irish Times.
Analytics firm Kpler data indicate Iran's trackable floating oil storage outside the U.S. blockade zone has fallen to zero, Fox News and CBS News reported. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said there have been "no loadings at Kharg Island," Iran's main export terminal, according to Fox News. Both points are consistent with a tightening blockade, though Ecker Geopolitics could not independently review the tracking data.
The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center reported a vessel on fire about 63 nautical miles southeast of Al-Faw, Iraq, flagging "suspicious activity," Fox News and CBS News reported. The cause had not been confirmed.
CENTCOM commander Adm. Brad Cooper, after flying over the strait on Oct. 25, said "primary transit routes in the Strait of Hormuz remain free and clear of Iranian sea mines," Al Arabiya reported. Iran's IRGC has claimed tanker hits that Trump has dismissed, as covered in our Oct. 23 report.
Geopolitical Players
Russia: Pezeshkian arrived in Moscow on Monday night for the Gas Exporting Countries Forum summit and is expected to meet Putin, Fox News reported, a meeting first announced by Araghchi, according to Anadolu.
Qatar: Qatar's emir met Pezeshkian on the summit sidelines Tuesday, Iran International reported.
Israel: Israelis are voting today in an election shaped by the war. Netanyahu's office denied CNN's account of a pre-election strike push.
Yemen's Houthis: The Saudi-led coalition said it intercepted three Houthi ballistic missiles aimed at the Eastern Province and four drones aimed at the Southern Region early Tuesday, Arab News reported, extending a campaign covered in our report on U.S. departures from Saudi Arabia.
What It Means for the United States
This section is analysis.
Benefits and opportunities
- Saudi, Pakistani and Turkish engagement gives Washington additional channels to Tehran without direct concessions.
- Visible strike readiness may strengthen U.S. leverage in any negotiation over Hormuz and Iran's nuclear program.
- Iran's collapsing oil exports, if sustained, reduce Tehran's revenue for the Revolutionary Guard and its proxies.
Risks and dangers
- Renewed strikes could trigger Iranian retaliation against U.S. personnel, which the U.S. intelligence community has warned is a live threat, as covered in our report on the DNI memo.
- Brent above $110 keeps pressure on American fuel prices heading into the Nov. 3 midterms.
- Closer Iran-Russia coordination could complicate U.S. efforts on Ukraine and energy markets.
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What's Next
Pezeshkian's expected meeting with Putin in Moscow is the next diplomatic marker. The four-country talks have no scheduled follow-up date. U.S. officials cited by CNN pointed to the period after the Nov. 3 midterms as a possible window for any strikes, and Iran's strait authority has threatened legal action against vessels of South Korean shipper Sinokor from Nov. 1, Iran International reported, citing Iranian officials.
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Sources
- Arab News: Iran hails "very good" talks with Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Türkiye, Oct. 27, 2026
- investingLive: Saudi, Pakistani, Iranian and Turkish security chiefs agree to continue talks, Oct. 26, 2026
- CBS News: Iran war updates, Oct. 26-27, 2026
- Fox News: Iran war live updates, Oct. 26, 2026
- The Times of Israel: Netanyahu pushed for Iran strike before election but Trump refused, CNN says, Oct. 26, 2026
- The Standard: US forces prepared to launch major operations against Iran within 96 hours, Oct. 27, 2026
- Associated Press via 2news: Trump rallies in Mississippi, Oct. 26, 2026
- Associated Press via ABC News: Trump's detour on Iran, Oct. 27, 2026
- Iran International: Live blog, Oct. 27, 2026
- Reuters via The Irish Times: Oil slips 1% as Iran diplomacy eases supply fears, Oct. 27, 2026
- Al Arabiya: CENTCOM chief visits Hormuz Strait, Oct. 25, 2026
- Gulf News: Trump leaves Iran attack on the table, Oct. 26, 2026
- Anadolu: Iranian president to visit Russia for gas summit, meet Putin, Oct. 26, 2026